Writing his name into Brighton history ✍️
Congratulations, Danny Welbeck 👏
Brighton and hove Albion
will aim to win fourth consecutive match in all competitions and breathe new life into their European ambitions as they welcome David Moyes Everyonside on Saturday afternoon.Despite wins on the road at Norwich
City, Ipswich Town and
Manchester United Brighton are still under some pressure to reignite their home form after picking up just three points in their last four fixtures at the Amex
That run stretches back to their shock 2-1 win over Manchester city in early November, having seen draws since against Southampton, Brentford and Arsenal along with a dire 3-1 defeat to rivals Crystal palace
Everton's mood, meanwhile, has been lifted by their 3-2 win over Tottenham Hotspur last weekend as well as players returning from injury and transfer rumours sparked by their recent ownership change.
Moyes also offers extensive experience with the club and the league, with the Toffees appearing ready to hit the ground running in Sussex.
Consistency is the key
During Fabian Hürzeler’s time as Brighton manager, the Seagulls are yet to name an unchanged starting XI.
That now amounts to 26 games without the consistency of a completely settled side.
Brighton have used the second-highest number of players in the Premier League this season – behind only Southampton – with 30 players already given minutes.
With Hurzeler reporting no major injury concerns following the 3-1 win at Manchester United however, the chance to harness some cohesion is ripe.
The only minor concern from last week’s starting XI is Lewus Dunkafter Hürzeler reported the Englishman was “not 100 per cent” as of Thursday’s training session.
On his captain, Hürzeler said: “He has a small muscle problem. It's nothing big or structural, but we also have to wait."
While there are still injury problems elsewhere, with Matt O’Riley nursing a knee issue, Brajan branderand Jack Chinningburgcoming back from issues and Jason Steele the latest to be ruled out with a shoulder strain, the cooling of some headaches around senior players is welcome.
In defence, the return of a settled back four of Dunk, Jan Paul van Hecke, Joël Veltman and PervisEstupinanoffers huge benefits for the Seagulls.
Further up the pitch, the midfield partnership between Carlos Baleba and Yasin is blossoming, while Brighton are at their best when João Pedro and Danny Welbeckcombine in attack.
To have all these talents fit and available is a blessing Hurzeler has yet to experience, but is one that has come at the perfect time with the race for European places hotting up.
In the seven matches the experienced striker was unable to start, the Seagulls scored just eight goals, painfully exposing the lack of a true replacement despite the club spending over £200 million on squad improvements last summer.
Evan Ferguson, Georginio Rutter and Pedro all attempted to deputise, but Brighton are not the same without their true number nine – as is borne out in the statistics.
Highlighted in expected goals (xG) figures, the Premier League is once again a division dictated by genuine number nines.
Of the league’s top 20 players for non-penalty xG (npxG) this season, just seven do not fit this mould.
These are Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah and Luis Díaz, Chelsea’s Cole Palmer and Noni Madueke, Tottenham’s Brennan Johnson, Bournemouth’s Antoine Semenyo and Arsenal’s Kai Havertz.
Welbeck is joint-19th in the list and has played the fewest Premier League minutes of anyone in that upper echelon, with his 5.8 non-penalty xG higher per 90 minutes than a host of players, many of whom have been dramatically outperforming their xG – including Chris Wood, Bryan Mbeumo and Jean-Philippe Mateta.
Contrary to opinions about his role at Brighton, however, Welbeck is not a regular assist provider.
Though he has two assists to his name this season, this is from an expected assists (xA) score of just 0.5, which is the joint-second lowest figure for any forward or attacking midfielder with at least 1,000 minutes this season – ahead of only Southampton’s Cameron Archer.
0.5 xA puts Welbeck in the statistical territory of most defenders and even Manchester City’s Ederson, although it is worth noting that Erling Haaland – the Premier League’s leading npxG exponent with 15.9 – also only musters 1.6 xA.
While not a great provider to his fellow forwards, Welbeck scores goals, and Brighton will hope for more of that against Everton.
Countering the counter.
Historically, Brighton have performed poorly against counter-attacking sides with three-man defences.
That trends has continued this season, though it did change against Manchester United last weekend.
Though Ruben Amorim is making United more of a front-foot side, the Red Devils’ best chances last weekend came on the break, and on the back of the Crystal Palace defeat and frustrating draws against Ipswich, Wolves and Brentford this season, Hürzeler will have been alarmed to see Everton adopt a similar three-man backline against Tottenham.
Given Everton’s current strengths – their physicality, defensive organisation and midfield bite – this approach was spot-on by Moyes.
The Scotsman does not have ideal fits in several positions, but with Jesper Lindstrøm putting in a superb shift at right wing-back and Abdoulaye Doucoure carrying the ball from midfield with his usual verve, the temporary fixes worked.
Hurzeler will expect a Toffees side who protect their box at all costs and will know that Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Iliman Ndiaye represent excellent presences at the other end when the ball gets pumped their way.
Brighton will need to be bold in attack and brave in one-on-ones as a result, and with these qualities lacking at times this season, it sets up a fascinating contest.
Question marks will surround the ability of Ayari to drive forward from midfield and Dunk to defend against younger, more mobile men.
Their duels, against Idrissa Gana Gueye and Ndiaye in particular, will be crucial to the match’s outcome.
Bench strength
With a fairly even match-up in store if both teams can recreate their previous performances, the changes made mid-game will be likely to decide the direction of three points.
Hürzeler has been criticised for his substitutions this season, with fans arguing his changes often come too late.
In the last three games, however, his alterations have had a positive influence.
Solly March has been notable amongst these, with his goal at Norwich and cross for Rutter’s goal at Old Trafford showing the 30-year-old can continue to be a key player after his 14-month spell on the sidelines.
March will be expected to play another big role in just his second home appearance since October 2023, and there will be more minutes for the likes of Simon Adingra, Diego Gómez and Gruda after the departure of Julio Enciso on loan to Ipswich.
Everton will have Jack Harrison and Beto to call upon, while Dwight McNeil, James Garner and Tim Iroegbunam may recover in time to play some part.
With Hürzeler lamenting the lack of experience available to him on several occasions, the involvement of March, Adam Webster and to a lesser extent Tariq Lamptey will dictate how Brighton finish the match.
The Seagulls do have another advantage when the game drags on this weekend, too.
Everton, handily, are the Premier League’s weakest second-half team in 2024/25.
Winning just two of the 21 second halves they have played, while scoring just seven goals and conceding 19, the Toffees’ record is far inferior to Brighton’s – which while 12th out of all Premier League sides, is still not great.
Brighton have won their last three second halves in the league while Everton have lost their last four, so to prevent that changing, Hürzeler will lay his trust with the senior heads in his squad again.
Providing these players impress again, Brighton should be counting on another important three points by 5pm on Saturday.
Brighton and hove Albion will aim to win fourth consecutive match in all competitions and breathe new life into their European ambitions as they welcome David Moyes Everyonside on Saturday afternoon.